How does the mortgage interest rate develop in September? We have listed the most important market developments for our interest rate expectations, including the stock market crash and inflation.
Stock market crash China
At the end of August, the most important Chinese stock market index fell by 8.5% in one day. It was the denouement of disappointing demand that had been hanging over the market for a while. In the fall, the Chinese stock market took the international stock markets with it. The stock market crash was one of the setbacks in the economic recovery.
Another disappointment is the recent European inflation figures. Although the inflation figures for August are not yet known, they are less optimistic in recent months. The strong growth that started in the Eurozone in January seems to be the case. The ECB, therefore, has no reason to stop the stimulus measures that are partly responsible for the current low mortgage interest rates.
This has reduced investor confidence and has a depressing effect on market figures . The capital market in particular is strongly influenced by international trade. This indicator for the long-term mortgage interest rate (for example, fixed for 20 years) started a slightly downward trend after June. It must become clear in the coming period whether this dip is temporary.
The margin on mortgage interest
In August, it was announced that the margin on mortgage interest rates had fallen. Lenders have opted to pass on the increase in market interest rates in May and June to a limited extent in the mortgage interest rate. Due to the increased competition from insurers and pension funds, banks have to keep up with the interest rate cuts in order not to lose even more market share.
September interest rate forecast
In view of these developments, we expect mortgage interest rates to remain at their current low levels in September and possibly fall further. Tip: register for the Interest Rate Flash and follow the mortgage interest closely.